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Overinvestment vs malinvestments This facility supports our Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Sciences departments in their work - work that can have a profound impact on our society, our communities campus 2 uniplan investment our cities. This will open up new collaborative opportunities with forex factory trading major lines palmistry business partners, bringing benefits to the local economy. The design also has sustainability at the heart, incorporating architectural and technical to leave a smaller footprint on the planet. These include: A new Faculty of Arts on the central campus A new Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research Building IBRB at Gibbet Hill Residences for up to 1, students As these combined projects will give rise to new floorspace and new parking requirements which are not reflected in the Masterplan, a new planning application was required. Screenshot of actual balance sheet from company K Annual Report. Screenshot taken from Adobe Inc. Campus development projects to Capital Plan Hybrid Planning Application Over the next 5 years, the University is embarking on its next phase of building works, which includes nine development projects.
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Many Lodging properties were also closed earlier in the year and it seems realistic to think it could be a couple of years before they return to any occupancy approaching pre-Covid business levels. Residential property as one of the larger property investment types continues to be generally regarded as relatively stable and resilient. The CARES Act provided financial support to unemployed individuals and indirectly to the residential landlords but expired at the end of July.

It is presently unclear if Congress will re-establish this payment and at what level. There has been a switch in demand to some suburban markets away from urban locations and demand in the for-sale single family housing market has come back strongly, at least in the short term. At present, it is not clear how long-lasting these trends will be in-place, but they continue to trend favorably.

The state of the Office market is hard to assess. While Work-From-Home appears to have worked more smoothly than many would have expected in the short term, we see many businesses including leading banks keen to have their employees return to their offices.

De-densification of interior layouts, for social distancing purposes, seems likely to help off-set some of the decline in space demand. We note that recent leasing news by tech companies in Manhattan Amazon and Facebook would suggest high growth industries with typically younger employees, do not seem to have lost their appetite for quality CBD locations. Healthcare properties present a somewhat mixed picture: Life science properties and Medical Offices Buildings generally remain positive, Hospitals are less certain, and Senior Housing is seeing space demand growth as more seniors age in-place and there being increased costs related to senior housing operations regulations, hygiene, labor.

The property investment markets have remained generally quiet with few transactions being reported. As usual, at times of disruption, buyers typically pull back and sellers are reluctant to reduce their asking price with some time being needed before the differences can be discounted and deal volumes pick up.

This leaves private buyers well placed to take advantage of buying opportunities especially if the recovery lags and some distress emerges — more likely initially in debt rather than equity situations. Several long-term institutional investors have voiced concerns about current public market debt valuations and related lowly return yield expectations focusing on the current subbps yield on the 10Y US Treasury note.

With property debt, quality issuers continue to have good access to new capital in the unsecured markets. REITs have continued to tap into this market at historically low rates giving them a very favorable blended cost of capital outlook. There have been some signs of distress in the CMBS market with problems concentrated on hotel and retail real estate loans. Delinquencies did decline to 9. The whole loan, commercial mortgage market appears to be solid and we suspect, with the near-death experience from the Great Recession still fresh in the memory of investors, there will be much more forbearance than foreclosure in the near term.

Overall, balance sheet leverage is much lower, with many only having modest capex commitments, and most having extended their debt maturities leaving limited short-term expirations to be repaid. Liquidity cash plus undrawn credit facilities has become a focal point within the sector. Some REITs cut or suspended their common dividends, notably in the retail and healthcare sectors including cuts from Simon, Welltower and Ventas , and suspensions from Host and Kimco.

We think the cuts are mostly complete and the suspensions will be lifted albeit likely with reduced pay-outs such as we have recently heard from Kimco. The unsecured debt markets have remained open and robust, allowing many investment grade REITs to continue to raise long term debt at very favorable rates, and thus to refinance so that it is accretive to earnings while remaining leverage neutral. Several REITs, notably among the Lodging companies, have agreed to forbearance deals with their lenders.

Unless the economy takes a material turn for the worse, we think most public REITs should weather the Covid storm. We are due shortly to see 3Q earnings and hear updates from management. This far into the year, FY20 earnings are generally going to be of less consequence for investors than developing thoughts about the outlook for Y We suspect that most REIT managements will choose to be circumspect about giving a view on the medium-term outlook.

We have long focused on investing in those REITs showing cash flow growth and those companies with strong operational performance, solid balance sheets and experienced management in geographic regions where supply and demand factors appear favorable. During times of stress, most recently in , and again in the current environment, the latter two points gain greater significance.

During 3Q we used the volatility and softness of REIT pricing to add to our positions in six of our current holdings which had reached valuation levels that looked very attractive relative to their pre COVID valuations. In addition, we sold Vornado VNO a New York City focused office and retail owner, to lower our geographic exposure in Manhattan due to a decreased long-term growth outlook for the city.

Our cash position was about 2. A small upward shift in cap rates in some markets moved real estate prices slightly lower while declining interest rates provided a lower cost of capital which supported public REIT prices during the same period. This measure continues to vary widely with some sectors such as Hotels and Malls trading at extremely deep discounts with others like Industrial and Data Centers trading at modest premiums.

Given the lack of private market transactions during 3Q it remains difficult to have a high degree of confidence in the current NAV numbers, but we expect to see better price discovery as we continue toward year-end. The substantive and speedy actions by the US and other governments around the world on providing fiscal support to businesses and individuals, and from Central Banks led by the Federal Reserve on providing monetary support via zero rates and QE buying programs, have supported asset pricing.

The yield on the UST 10Y note has remained resiliently low, declining 2bps to 0. REITs usually have access to multiple sources of capital, and they may enjoy a period of comparative advantage relative to the more highly leveraged private players. As always, we believe the strength and experience of management will be a critical factor for long term operating performance.

Many REITs that were battle tested in appear well positioned financially and strategically given the current environment. Among the property types, the shorter lease duration residential properties should see the benefits of a recovery quickest, while we expect the tech-related digital real estate areas to be resilient throughout.

Retail, especially Malls and Lodging as we have referenced above, are facing serious pressures. They look likely to face the biggest challenges to restoring their businesses back towards growth. Equity stock performance has been led by the big tech names this year leaving many sectors of the market trailing.

Of late, there appears to be some rotation to more cyclical and value sectors that would be expected to benefit from an economic recovery. There are some growing concerns that future returns from public equity and fixed income investments given current elevated valuations will be very modest.

REITs as commercial real estate proxies should be beneficiaries if investors act to increase their alternative commercial real estate exposure. Important Information: 1. Uniplan Investment Counsel is a boutique investment firm, with roots dating back to , that manages a variety of portfolios primarily for US clients. The composite was created January 1, Performance is calculated in US dollars utilizing a time-weighted total rate of return.

Total return for the composite is represented by the asset-weighted returns of the portfolios within the composite. Trade-date valuation is used. Performance is net of all transaction costs and net performance is net of transaction costs and maximum allowable total investment management fee, but before any custodial fees that may be incurred separately by the client. The index is adjusted to reflect the reinvestment of dividends. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The index figures do not reflect any deduction for fees, expenses or taxes. Investing in securities entails risks, including: Real Estate Investment Trusts, REITs and the portfolios that invest in them are subject to risk, such as poor performance by the manager of the REIT, adverse changes to the tax laws or failure by the REIT to qualify for tax-free pass-through of income under the Code.

Taubman Centers TCO. Email Address Notify me. Safehold SAFE. Cubesmart CUBE. Boston Properties BXP. Epr Properties EPR. NeoGenomics NEO. Global X Mlp Etf Etn. Eaton ETN. Sunrun RUN. Bunge BG. Abbvie ABBV. Honeywell International HON. Timken Company TKR. Ontrak OTRK. Brookfield Renewable energy partners lpu BEP. Ceva CEVA. L3harris Technologies LHX. Williams Companies WMB. Enbridge ENB. Veritone VERI. Vishay Precision VPG. Fly Leasing FLY. Perceptron PRCP. Ontrak PFD. Glatfelter Company GLT.

Farmland Partners FPI. Herc Hldgs HRI. Fathom Holdings.

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The Fed in its latest projections is forecasting GDP and year-end unemployment of The US reopened during 3Q after being effectively closed to all but essential activities in late March-April. States and cities reopened at differing times and rules but by mid-late summer most were at least partially open.

The disruption to the country has had a direct impact on real estate space usage. The effect has varied widely across different property types with the likes of cell towers and datacenters largely unaffected through to lodging and malls where many of their properties were closed at least for a while. Tenant space demand for the tech-related Cell Towers and Datacenters had been running strong before Covid and lockdowns, while e-commerce and Work-From-Home WFH appears to have only increased digital demand.

We continue to think these trends are unlikely to modestly reverse post-Covid. The negative secular pressure on Retail properties from the rise of e-commerce has intensified after the impact of Covid. With more retailer bankruptcies likely to come, the negative pressure on occupancy will grow. Some tenants withheld rental payments and have been in discussions with their landlords about rent relief deferrals, abatements and other amendments including profit sharing.

E-commerce sales by established retailers have been growing, quite rapidly in some cases, with Target and Walmart among those adapting to changing customer preferences. Many Lodging properties were also closed earlier in the year and it seems realistic to think it could be a couple of years before they return to any occupancy approaching pre-Covid business levels. Residential property as one of the larger property investment types continues to be generally regarded as relatively stable and resilient.

The CARES Act provided financial support to unemployed individuals and indirectly to the residential landlords but expired at the end of July. It is presently unclear if Congress will re-establish this payment and at what level. There has been a switch in demand to some suburban markets away from urban locations and demand in the for-sale single family housing market has come back strongly, at least in the short term. At present, it is not clear how long-lasting these trends will be in-place, but they continue to trend favorably.

The state of the Office market is hard to assess. While Work-From-Home appears to have worked more smoothly than many would have expected in the short term, we see many businesses including leading banks keen to have their employees return to their offices. De-densification of interior layouts, for social distancing purposes, seems likely to help off-set some of the decline in space demand.

We note that recent leasing news by tech companies in Manhattan Amazon and Facebook would suggest high growth industries with typically younger employees, do not seem to have lost their appetite for quality CBD locations. Healthcare properties present a somewhat mixed picture: Life science properties and Medical Offices Buildings generally remain positive, Hospitals are less certain, and Senior Housing is seeing space demand growth as more seniors age in-place and there being increased costs related to senior housing operations regulations, hygiene, labor.

The property investment markets have remained generally quiet with few transactions being reported. As usual, at times of disruption, buyers typically pull back and sellers are reluctant to reduce their asking price with some time being needed before the differences can be discounted and deal volumes pick up. This leaves private buyers well placed to take advantage of buying opportunities especially if the recovery lags and some distress emerges — more likely initially in debt rather than equity situations.

Several long-term institutional investors have voiced concerns about current public market debt valuations and related lowly return yield expectations focusing on the current subbps yield on the 10Y US Treasury note. With property debt, quality issuers continue to have good access to new capital in the unsecured markets. REITs have continued to tap into this market at historically low rates giving them a very favorable blended cost of capital outlook.

There have been some signs of distress in the CMBS market with problems concentrated on hotel and retail real estate loans. Delinquencies did decline to 9. The whole loan, commercial mortgage market appears to be solid and we suspect, with the near-death experience from the Great Recession still fresh in the memory of investors, there will be much more forbearance than foreclosure in the near term. Overall, balance sheet leverage is much lower, with many only having modest capex commitments, and most having extended their debt maturities leaving limited short-term expirations to be repaid.

Liquidity cash plus undrawn credit facilities has become a focal point within the sector. Some REITs cut or suspended their common dividends, notably in the retail and healthcare sectors including cuts from Simon, Welltower and Ventas , and suspensions from Host and Kimco. We think the cuts are mostly complete and the suspensions will be lifted albeit likely with reduced pay-outs such as we have recently heard from Kimco.

The unsecured debt markets have remained open and robust, allowing many investment grade REITs to continue to raise long term debt at very favorable rates, and thus to refinance so that it is accretive to earnings while remaining leverage neutral. Several REITs, notably among the Lodging companies, have agreed to forbearance deals with their lenders.

Unless the economy takes a material turn for the worse, we think most public REITs should weather the Covid storm. We are due shortly to see 3Q earnings and hear updates from management. This far into the year, FY20 earnings are generally going to be of less consequence for investors than developing thoughts about the outlook for Y We suspect that most REIT managements will choose to be circumspect about giving a view on the medium-term outlook.

We have long focused on investing in those REITs showing cash flow growth and those companies with strong operational performance, solid balance sheets and experienced management in geographic regions where supply and demand factors appear favorable. During times of stress, most recently in , and again in the current environment, the latter two points gain greater significance. During 3Q we used the volatility and softness of REIT pricing to add to our positions in six of our current holdings which had reached valuation levels that looked very attractive relative to their pre COVID valuations.

In addition, we sold Vornado VNO a New York City focused office and retail owner, to lower our geographic exposure in Manhattan due to a decreased long-term growth outlook for the city. Our cash position was about 2. A small upward shift in cap rates in some markets moved real estate prices slightly lower while declining interest rates provided a lower cost of capital which supported public REIT prices during the same period.

This measure continues to vary widely with some sectors such as Hotels and Malls trading at extremely deep discounts with others like Industrial and Data Centers trading at modest premiums. Given the lack of private market transactions during 3Q it remains difficult to have a high degree of confidence in the current NAV numbers, but we expect to see better price discovery as we continue toward year-end. The substantive and speedy actions by the US and other governments around the world on providing fiscal support to businesses and individuals, and from Central Banks led by the Federal Reserve on providing monetary support via zero rates and QE buying programs, have supported asset pricing.

The yield on the UST 10Y note has remained resiliently low, declining 2bps to 0. REITs usually have access to multiple sources of capital, and they may enjoy a period of comparative advantage relative to the more highly leveraged private players. As always, we believe the strength and experience of management will be a critical factor for long term operating performance. Many REITs that were battle tested in appear well positioned financially and strategically given the current environment.

Among the property types, the shorter lease duration residential properties should see the benefits of a recovery quickest, while we expect the tech-related digital real estate areas to be resilient throughout. Retail, especially Malls and Lodging as we have referenced above, are facing serious pressures. They look likely to face the biggest challenges to restoring their businesses back towards growth. Equity stock performance has been led by the big tech names this year leaving many sectors of the market trailing.

Of late, there appears to be some rotation to more cyclical and value sectors that would be expected to benefit from an economic recovery. There are some growing concerns that future returns from public equity and fixed income investments given current elevated valuations will be very modest. REITs as commercial real estate proxies should be beneficiaries if investors act to increase their alternative commercial real estate exposure.

The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. In no event shall stockzoa. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. Equinix EQIX. Weyerhaeuser Company WY. Taubman Centers TCO. Email Address Notify me. Safehold SAFE. Cubesmart CUBE. Boston Properties BXP. Epr Properties EPR.

NeoGenomics NEO. Global X Mlp Etf Etn. Eaton ETN. Sunrun RUN. Bunge BG. Abbvie ABBV. Honeywell International HON. Timken Company TKR. Ontrak OTRK. Brookfield Renewable energy partners lpu BEP. Ceva CEVA. L3harris Technologies LHX. Williams Companies WMB. Enbridge ENB. Veritone VERI. Vishay Precision VPG. Fly Leasing FLY. Perceptron PRCP.