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Another deviant example is that bookmakers adjust their odds to public opinion in order to balance their books. Odds are not even necessarily based on expected probabilities. Learning Point: There is NO connection between the market odds of a bet and the real probabilities of the event occurring. The concept of stake becomes much more complicated if property is wagered, such as houses, cars, or in some countries even wives! If you gamble property then you not only have to calculate the true probabilities of a bet to compute the odds, but also convert the staked property into a monetary value.
In these cases bets are very often lopsided and unfair, with a huge advantage to the person who is better in maths than the other. Read an example: Arsenal fan staked his house on a bet with a Manchester United fan, who offered his wife and Toyota car in return. Unless money is no object, few people will go shopping and load their basket with goods without checking and comparing the prices of different brands.
Most of us need to ensure we have enough money available to pay for the purchases, and some of us like to ensure we are getting the best value for the money we pay. If you constantly go shopping without paying attention to the prices ignoring the significance of odds , or do not bother comparing brands before buying them failing to shop around for the best odds , you will certainly end up paying more than others failing to capitalise on your betting investments , and in the long run be able to buy fewer products for your money losing more money than you win.
Always remember: Odds are the price for a bet, they very rarely stand for the real probabilities, or chances. If you want to become a winner you MUST understand odds and be able to compare and distinguish between the implied probabilities suggested by the odds offered in the market and the real or true probabilities suggested by historical statistics. There is no alternative — a lucky gambler is never lucky all the time.
Both inexperienced and first-time punters new to the world of online football soccer betting may be pondering the question, "What actually We have also noticed many online publications I have recently been working on statistical analysis spreadsheet to help identify potential bets. I am new to this type of application but not the math. I am unfortunately a lot like your husband when it comes to football betting and as such find it difficult to follow my data, I have calculated that in the euro fixture between France and Romania the most likely outcome will be DNB Romania which seems, to my heart, impossible have I made a analytical error or am I on the right path???
Please help. Hi Joe, we have not calculated any games in the Euro, too many unknown variables, too many teams new in the competition this year. However, generally speaking, if your calculations come to this result, and you say that you are good in maths, then you probably have calculated correctly, even if the heart questions the result. With every single bet, your stake adjusts to a proportion or your current bankroll; a percentage of your bankroll at the time of betting.
First, you decide what percentage you would like to bet. Then you do the very simple maths each time you place a bet. Kelly Criterion is a lot more complex, hugely popular with top tier elite sports bettors. You need to know what you are doing to even begin to implement it. Basically, the stake increases and decreases depending on how far the available odds are from where you believe they should be. So your bankroll size, the odds, and your calculation of what the odds should be — are all factors that determine your bet size.
As it is hard to know the exact probability of success of every bet, it is a good idea to apply a fraction value between 0 and 1 to the original Kelly formula. Common values of fractional Kelly parameter are between 0.
In a poll recently undertaken by us here at The Value Betting Blog, of exclusively profitable bettors, we asked which staking method they preferred. Level Staking is the tipsters standard. Each bet stands alone. You might consider this method if you are:. Level Up Staking is used for all the same reasons. With a slightly added risk and income potential, extra benefits are:.
Proportional Staking just makes sense. Betting relative to your bankroll. Simple and effective. Reasons to implement:. Use if:. Hopefully, this helps you grasp how and why to implement different betting stake strategies a little bit better. Of course, each of these methods has its own variations. You may use different proportions of your bankroll for different odds ranges, you may slightly alter and personalise the Kelly Criterion formula, and a host of other tweaks are used to cater to different value bettors.
Represented as a number between 0 and 1. So in the above image, we have it set to a hitrate of 0. Average Bet Size — The percentage of your starting bankroll that you will bet. Odds — The odds you are finding. This number, in relation to your MPO, will define your yield.
We took the liberty of doing a simulation times with a bet volume of , using these parameters:. The proportional staking method had a higher average bankroll as well as the highest maximum bankroll from the simulations. But also suffered the lowest final bankroll after the simulations, nearly a full less than the lowest for the level staking system.
Check the spreadsheet for more detailed results. Have a play around with the variables, run the bet simulation with different methods and start to get an understanding of the ways they differ.