They found a consistent home bias in three European countries and an opposite pattern in two of the twelve European countries in their sample. The crucial assumption underlying this approach is that a difference in market structure and legal regulations among national markets affects only the average level of all odds and not the individual odds of different countries. This paper presents a new and straightforward method of how to identify the home team bias in the real-world betting market.
The method proposed in this paper follows the assumption that the home bias should be observed in bets on the win of the national team. This measure is clearly exogenous and does not raise endogeneity concerns. But instead of comparing odds set by bookmakers from different countries, the method identifies the home bias by estimating a logit model where the dependent variable is the success of the bet and the explanatory variables are the constant and the logarithm of the possible net return and home team dummy variable.
The proposed method requires data from only one betting market. In order to show that this method has a potential to identify the home team bias, I apply this method to the Czech betting data on ice-hockey matches of the Czech national team and league matches.
There are two reasons why ice-hockey bets are especially suitable for this purpose. Firstly, ice-hockey is the most popular sport in the Czech Republic and the Czech national team is popular and well known among the Czech citizens. Secondly, there are around 30 matches of the Czech team per season which is more than in other popular sports. This section explains the main idea behind the identification strategy employed in this paper.
Suppose that bettors are subject to the home team bias, so they want to bet predominantly on the home team win. The bettors are therefore willing to accept less favorable odds when betting on the home team. If the bookmaker does not want to take a risky position, he will set the odds to balance the monetary value of the bets placed on each side of the bet. Then, the odds against the home team have to be higher and, therefore, the odds favoring the home team lower in order to attract bettors.
If the bookmaker is willing to take the unbalanced position, he will maximize his profit by exploiting the bias, setting lower odds for the win of the home team Levitt, In both cases, the probability that the bet on the home team win is successful is lower than the probability of the regular bet with the same odds. Regular bet refers to a bet on a match in which the home team does not participate.
The implication that there should be a difference in the success probability of the bet on the home team and a regular team offers a way to identify the home bias. The identification strategy employed in this paper aims at finding out whether the probability of the home team win is lower than the probability of a regular team win given the same odds. Obviously, the winning probabilities are not directly observable — only the actual outcome of the bet.
The standard solution to this problem is to estimate the logit model where the dependent variable is a binary variable denoting the result of the bet. This is equivalent to the formulation where the dependent variable is the logarithm of the winning odds. The dataset used in the following empirical analysis comes from the Czech commercial database Trefik.
It contains the closing odds and results of 9, ice-hockey matches between and There are 7, matches from the Czech league and 2, international matches. The Czech national team participated in international matches. The odds were set by the largest Czech bookmaker — the company Tipsport. The dataset contains the following variables for each match:.
This section provides a detail description of the estimation procedure. The estimation procedure has to deal with the problem that different outcomes of the same match are not independent. If the odds on the particular team are biased upwards, then the odds on the opponent are biased downwards. Similarly, one team winning the match means that the opponent has lost the match. In order to preserve the independence of observations, a sample of independent outcomes is created in the following way.
If the Czech national team takes part in the match, the bet on the win of the Czech national is chosen. In case of regular matches, one of the outcomes on which the bet is placed is chosen randomly. The sample thus includes all bets on the win of the Czech national team and randomly selected bets from other matches.
The Odds, the date, the result of the bet and the identification variables defined above are recorded for each bet. This sample represents the input for the estimation of the model described by 1. Since the estimation results depend on the random selection of outcomes of regular matches, I performed this estimation on 1, randomly chosen samples.
Each sample includes the same bets on the Czech national team win and a random selection of bets from regular matches. The aim of the repetition is to verify that the results are not sensitive to the random selection of bets. To further verify the robustness of the results, I have estimated two additional model specifications. The first additional specification contains year fixed effects as a control for the possible time-specific unobservable characteristics of the betting market.
The specification of the model is defined by the following equation, where the index t refers to the year:. A concern may also arise that the preferences of bettors differ between the bets on the international matches and the Czech league matches. Henceforth, I estimated the models 1 and 2 using only the subsample of bets from the international matches.
Table 1 reports the estimation results. Column 1 reports the estimation of the equation 1 on the sample of international and league matches. It provides evidence for the existence of the optimism bias as the coefficient for the bets on the win of the Czech national team is significantly less than zero. The results from all 1, estimations are very similar. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate that the results are not driven by the random sample selection.
The maximum p-value from all the random samples estimations is 0. Additional columns in Table 1 present the robustness checks. Column 2 presents the estimation results of the model with year fixed effects. Columns 3 and 4 present the estimation results using only the sample of the international matches. Column 4 includes year fixed effects. These results suggest that the evidence supporting the home team bias is robust.
Figure 3 presents the estimated relationship between the betting odds and the winning probabilities based on the column 1 of the Table 1. The solid line describes the relationship for bets on the win of the Czech national and the dashed line corresponds to normal bets. The figure shows the home team bias is not only statistically significant, but also quantitatively substantial.
The difference in the winning probability between the home team bets and the regular bets is about 0. For example, regular bet at the odds 2 is almost fair, the winning probability is 0. Previous research found some evidence for the existence of the home team bias. This paper offers a straightforward method of the home bias identification and it shows that the home bias exists on the Czech betting market.
There are several explanations of the source of the home bias which can be divided according to what makes the home team special. One group of explanations is based on the assumption that the bettors are also supporters of the home team. Another group of explanations proposes that bettors have a better knowledge of the home team.
The home bias in stock markets is sometimes explained by the competence effect Graham et al. Therefore, if the bettors feel knowledgeable about their home team, they might be more willing to bet on the home team matches. However, the competence effect does not explain why they should predominantly bet on the home team and not against it. Similarly, Bar-Hillel et al. As the home team is better known and salient, this may also explain the home bias. Whatever is the cause of the home bias, the results suggest that the home bias persists in the environment with significant monetary incentives and unambiguous feedback.
Ayton, P. Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions. Judgment and Decision Making, 6 5 , — Babad, E. Wishful thinking and objectivity among sports fans. Social Behaviour, 2 4 , — Wishful thinking—against all odds. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 21 23 , — Bar-Hillel, M. The elusive wishful thinking effect. S ean Graham has warned that "many of our colleagues" will be temporarily laid off after it closed its business to customers until at least the end of the month.
The bookmaker employs around people across 30 betting shops, mainly in Northern Ireland, with the rest in the Republic. A spokesperson for the firm said that a closure support team had been put in place to "maintain communication with our colleagues during the closure period in order to help and support them through this challenging time".
If we fail to act now we believe the virus could remain a much longer term threat to our colleagues, their jobs and our business Sean Graham spokesperson. Bookmaker Sean Graham urges Stormont to do more for businesses as it temporarily shuts up shop. Close Lay-offs: Sean Graham.
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This article has not yet received a rating on the project's importance scale. Edit or discuss this list. WikiProject British crime. This article has been rated as C-Class on the quality scale. This article has not yet received a rating on the importance scale. WikiProject Ireland. Ireland portal v t e This article is within the scope of WikiProject Ireland , a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Ireland on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.
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WikiProject Serial Killer task force. It is an attempt to build a comprehensive and detailed guide on serial killers , mass murders , spree killers and related topics on Wikipedia. WikiProject Terrorism. Ivor Smith, a Presbyterian minister who was based in the area and who worked with the families of the bomb victims. He said that the UDA claim was "like a knife through the heart. We were absolutely appalled at the thought that somebody would try to do something like that and justify it by bringing in Teebane.
As far as the families were concerned, it was very definitely not 'in my name'". When a July Orange Order march passed the scene of the shooting, Orangemen shouted pro-UDA slogans and held aloft five fingers as a taunt to residents over the five deaths. The images of Orangemen and loyalist flute band members holding up five fingers as they passed the shop were beamed around the world and was a public relations disaster for the Order.
No one was ever convicted for the killings although, locally, blame fell on Joe Bratty and his sidekick Raymond Elder , the two leading UDA figures in the Annadale Flats. Lister and Jordan, however, claim that one of the gunmen was actually from west Belfast and was supplied to Bratty by Adair.
The IRA did not immediately retaliate although in a statement they claimed to know the identity of the killers and claimed that they would "take them out when the time was right". A small memorial garden was later added. It found that a Browning pistol used by the gunmen had been given to them by the police.
UDA quartermaster and police agent William Stobie had handed the gun to police and the police had given it back to him. Police "may have thought they had tampered with it to prevent it from being used". According to the HET report this operation "would have required both the authority of a senior police officer and a recovery plan, generally short-term and where possible supported by the security forces within a short period of time.
Clearly in this case, there was a significant failure and the repercussions were tragic and devastating". The gun was, the report continued, also used in other UDA killings. Officers from the HET were told by police that the assault rifle used in the attack had been "disposed of".
However, it was later discovered on display in the Imperial War Museum. In February Jackie McDonald , the incumbent commander of the UDA South Belfast Brigade the area in which the shop is located , admitted that the victims of the shooting had been innocent.
However, McDonald said that he could not apologise for the attack, arguing that as he was imprisoned at the time he played no part in what had happened. On 5 February , a group of people, who were paying tribute to the victims of the attack, were arrested by the members of the Police service of Northern Ireland PSNI , for reportedly not adhering to Covid regulations. One of the survivors of the shooting, Mark Sykes was taken into custody.
He was released by evening. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Sean Graham bookmakers' shooting Part of the Troubles The scene of the attack. The Troubles in Ireland. London: Bloomsbury Publishing Plc. S Edinburgh University Press. Retrieved 5 February The Independent. The Troubles Northern Ireland. Irish republican paramilitaries. Direct Action Against Drugs.
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