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Warnock's 1. Something to watch in the future perhaps, but as these events are so rare there's not much to be gained from analysing them to death. I made a little on all three markets by betting with my heart rather than finding an edge, but I can't help thinking I was too late looking at these markets and missed a bigger opportunity. It happens. The bigger picture is that the Democrats look to have secured control of Congress and the Presidency, a nice turnaround from four years ago when the Republicans ruled the roost.
So much for all this winning by Donald Trump. A rather unusual opportunity in the markets surrounding the Georgia Senate elections, of which there were two - one Special and one Regular. The odds are fluid as the election is taking place currently, but as polls were closing the Democrats were around 1. Based on these odds, the probability of the Democrats winning both seats and increasing their total to 48 was therefore around 0.
The "Number of Democrat Senate Seats" market for these three outcomes respectively was 3. There was also the mirror market for the "Number of Republican Senate Seats which offered similar odds, but strangely not identical. Backing 46 Democrat seats is the exact same as 52 Republican seats and so on. Great value doesn't guarantee you a winner, but the odds seem way off. Be careful, because since I started this post, the Special odds have moved out, but there is opportunity here.
It maybe because some low-information bettors don't read the Rules for these markets, but good luck. Aside from my Mum's passing in April, which appeared to be non-COVID related, and the continued slow and steady decline in my 93 year old Dad's health, I have to say that this year has been pretty good to me. Retirement was a real possibility at this stage, with a trip to Queensland in July next on the agenda, but then two things happened.
One was I got promoted at work, and two, the pandemic hit which meant the Queensland tickets were cancelled and there was little point in retiring if I couldn't do any traveling anyway. My job isn't really work these days. It's all meetings and management and if I can do it full-time from home, and by full-time I often mean for two to three hours a day, then I might as well hang in there until the next bonus and stock options are doled out at least, which is next month.
Were my job hacking away at a coal face, my attitude to retirement might be a little different. So since March, like many readers I suspect, I have mostly worked from home, with the exception of three business trips later in the year, meaning a large saving in travel costs although slightly offset by now having to pay for my own coffee!
More significant than the cost saving perhaps is that of the extra time I now have to myself, rolling out of bed five minutes before my first meeting and sliding my chair across the floor to my non-work desk within seconds of the last meeting ending. Of course, I have too much integrity to ever think of looking at personal projects during work hours. Financially this year has been second only to with the US Indexes yet again leaving those of the UK in the dust, as I've mentioned before on this blog.
This year the difference between the two was the largest ever, well at least since , at more than double the difference in Note that my sports investments these days are a very small part of my portfolio, with most of my money tied up in US-Index funds, property, and with play money invested in companies I've mentioned in this blog such as Tesla, Lloyds Bank, Boeing, and Pfizer, plus a few I haven't.
David Sumpter suggested that: Well, it's for old men too, or at least this one. Overall, it was a volatile year for me as I expect it was for others. Q1 was the worst in spreadsheet history, with a I didn't sell anything, which is when you would actually take a loss, but it was a bold red entry on the spreadsheet and a record I don't want to see beaten any time soon.
I've been around long enough to know that such days historically present buying opportunities. Six figure gains in both November and December made this the best quarter in real terms, if not quite by percentage. Results are also improved by ignoring mid-week matches, but that's for another post. Unfortunately the 'Close' selections ended the year with a small loss of 3. Adding in the Time Zone filter I mentioned a few days ago, and the record improved to The season was drastically different to usual, a mere 60 games in the regular season which didn't start until July.
The long profitable T-Bone System lost between 8. The lines may yet move, but currently it looks like the final two matches in the AFC East on Sunday will be the final selections for this season's Small Road Dogs. Finally, a big thank you to beigemartin who let me know that my latest post had been reproduced without permission or credit on another blog. Perhaps not the biggest issue in the world, but annoying that someone thinks this kind of behaviour is acceptable.
At least they were quick to remove it when I requested them to do so. And with that, Happy New Year. I'm beginning to regret making my comment last week regarding the remaining selections that: Even if all seven lost, we'd still have a healthy ROI. The ROI drops to In the Premier League we had plenty of Draws, which isn't unusual in the December part of the holiday season.
Blindly backing the Draw gives a return of 3. I'll update the Draw numbers in a couple of days once Wednesdays games are complete. I've looked at results by month before, and noticed some interesting trends, but Dave inspired me to drill down still further, and while my interest remains primarily on the Draw, I'll share some findings in the next few days. With the US markets open today, no doubt many of you are happy with adding another 1. Just three days remain in and I'm pretty sure this will be another category ending the year with a healthy ROI!
I mentioned yesterday that paying attention to Time Zones in the NBA can make a difference to your bottom line. The NBA is a little complicated, given that some Western Conference teams are located two time zones apart, while some Eastern Conference teams are in the same time zone as Western Conference teams.
Also this season, the Toronto Raptors are not playing their home games in Toronto, but at least for the start of the season, will be playing in Tampa due to complications crossing the US-Canada border during the pandemic. Obviously this is an issue which will impact the NHL more seriously, with seven of the NHL's 31 teams based north of the border.
The schedule for the season, although as there are no games scheduled in , it's really just a season. Opening games begin on January 13th and the league will reorganise to reduce travel and to avoid the need for crossing the border, all seven Canadian teams will play in a new North Division, with the 24 US teams divided into three Divisions of eight - East, Central and West. Next season there will be 25 with the new Seattle Kraken franchise.
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Betfair trader Caan Berry documents his progress from the point he quit his full time job to focus on betting. His blog is an excellent resource for aspiring traders. His detailed, unique analyses offer a technical insight into the sports betting markets. Established in , the Green All Over blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports investing.
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The site has enormous potential, if the creators persist in creating more content to the current standard. For example, you can download free data from both Football-Data. If So, How? Skip to content. Smart Sports Trader Ryan, the writer of Smart Sports Trader, has pieced together an excellent starting point for any aspiring professional bettor. Soccer Widow When I first started to learn about sports betting I found several articles on this site very helpful.
Caan Berry Betfair trader Caan Berry documents his progress from the point he quit his full time job to focus on betting.
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