support vector machine sports betting

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Support vector machine sports betting

The result is below:. Accomplishing this necessitates duplicating the DataFrame and concatenating the two together row wise. The reverse is done for the copied DataFrame, and voila! Every match is now represented twice. The first feature of potential predictive interest has already been created. This hardly requires much domain knowledge as this is an adage repeated across all team sports.

Playing at home confers an unspoken advantage and may be particularly pronounced for the best teams. The plots above are pretty self-explanatory. Every single team from both seasons sampled collected more points at home than they did away. As such, home or away seems that it will be a predictive feature. The second predictive feature I have in mind is the all time head to head win percentage with each opponent.

Using personal domain knowledge, I am aware that there are several one sided rivalries in the English Premier League. United have won 15 of those games by a combined score of 50—5. If they were to play again, I would expect Wigan to lose. Computing this percentage is slightly complicated because of draws. The outer loop will include every team, the inner for loop will include every opponent. Constructing a dictionary of head to head win percentages over each full iteration of the inner loop allows us to map the dictionary to a new column in the concatenated dataframe.

Intuitively this seems it would be a useful feature in predicting matches as well. Specifically in reinforcing the discrepancy between the top teams and the teams who have only been in the Premier League a few times. Given the similarities between the all-time win percentage and head to head win percentage, we might have reason to be concerned about collinearity between the two. If these two features are highly correlated, we can drop one of the features and not lose any variance explained by our model.

Besides, simpler is almost always better! The plot below makes intuitive sense. As teams play opponents with lower all time winning percentages, their head to head winning percentage goes up. This is a feature that intends to incorporate mentality and team confidence into the model. Of course, this could also be pure observation or confirmation bias. In particular, it might be related to the NBA hot hand hypothesis that has been consistently disproved.

Implementing this feature should not turn out to be too difficult. Using an inner for loop and the dataframe method. The first plot shows 4 of the most successful teams in Premier League history and the second plot shows 4 of the less successful teams.

That is, a team will not win more games after a 3 win streak than after a 5 win streak. However, most teams win at a higher rate during a win streak, as compared to their all-time percentage. This feature looks to be somewhat predictive. Over the course of 38 games 1 Premier League season , where each team finishes in the league should be fairly indicative of their strength.

This may change significantly over several seasons but is unlikely to change much one season to the next. As such, if we have information on where a team finished last year, we might expect to gain some predictive power from the information. Due to some discrepancies in notation and season availability, getting the information from this source and into a feature for our model involved a fair bit of data munging. The league standings data also included other potentially useful information such as goals per game, shots on target per game and other statistics.

To improve model performance these could always be added as features. While not always quite as intriguing as some of the newer and more advanced supervised learning algorithms, regression models still have a lot to offer. In the context of of classifying matches into 1 of multiple discrete targets win, draw or loss , logistic regression is a great place to start. At the very least, it will give us a baseline to compare with more complicated models.

Because our use case is trying to predict a single season worth of matches, the testing and training set will be manually assigned. The training set will be every season from —95 through — The testing set will be a single season, the —17 Premier League Season. The target is a variable with three classes, win, loss, or draw.

As we can see in the report above, wins and losses have fair precision and recall but draws seem to be much harder to predict. When thinking about the overarching goal of this project, we have to think about what element of classification is most important. Because we would like to use our model to place bets, we want to be relatively certain that when the model predicts a result that it is correct.

Therefore to achieve best performance, we need to optimize for high precision and necessarily can forget about recall. This being said, our first model has fairly poor precision. Perhaps if we bet in volume we could make money on wins and losses, but an improvement in precision would help dramatically. As such, a Random Forest Classifier would seem a good next step. Without going into too much detail, however, the Random Forest Classifier performed worse than the Logistic Regression model.

This is a poor trade-off for increased complexity. Also tried was a Support Vector Machine with similar results. Looking back at the classification report from the multinomial logistic regression model, we notice that draws are comparatively difficult to predict. If we can merge two classes into 1, change the model to solve a binary classification problem, and increase precision we can up our potential profits.

Merging the draw category into either losses or wins is simple enough, we just have to decide which results we ultimately want to bet on. I start by loading in the data set for stats and team win totals. I have saved this data in local rds files for use across multiple projects.

The values in the imported data sets should be fairly self-explanatory given the column names. These are used for database purposes and are not significant for modeling. Thus, I create lagged versions of the team stats.

As I did with the stats data, I create some new variables from the win totals data. These deserve some explanation. I create a variable called result to distinguish whether or not a team was over or under. This will be the response variable for the models. I use a binary 1 and 0 to indicate over and under respectively.

I create lagged variable for team wins and the for the same reason that I create lagged variables for the teams stats. This variable might have some predictive significance if it can be deduced by the model that there is a discernable pattern in the way sportsbooks respond to changes in a given team's wins from one season to another.

This variable could have some explanatory power if it can be deduced by the model that sportsbooks are influenced by their relative performance for a given team in the previous year when determining the win total for that team. Finally, I join the stats and win totals data sets and reduce the combined data sets to only the predictor variables and the response variable result that will be used for modeling.

Additionally, I choose not to normalize my data. There is never really a right answer to whether or not normalizing the data is the correct option. The choice can vary depending on the type of model, the choice of predictors, the nature of the response variable, etc. I convert the response variable result to a factor because the majority of model functions used for classification rely on the response variable being distinguised as a factor. Because logistic regression uses maximum likelihood estimate MLE to estimate parameters, as opposed ordinal least squares OLS like linear regression, most of the assumptions for linear regression models do not apply to logistic regression models.

Nevertheless, logistic models should not have multicollinearity and and errors should not be correlated. But which predictors to choose? That choice depends on the type of model. Of course, there are many ways to investigate proper selection of models. One might say that Thus, it is often necessary or, at the very least, highly recommended to remove or transform variables exhibiting collinearity. Another option might be to modify the redundant variables in some way.

Furthermore, although it is only necessary that the residuals of the predictors have zero variance for linear regression models, it would be interesting to see if the residuals of the predictors in this data set exhibit non-zero variance. I can fit a logistic regression model on all possible predictors and see which variables have p-values indicating that they are statistically significant.

There are several different criteria that could be used to choose model parameters. These values provide estimates of the test set error of the model. It looks like these critiera each select a small number of parameters, and the parameters that they identify are inclusive with one another. Instead of trying to select the best subset of predictors for regression or applying some kind of cost parameter to a regression model incorporating all possible predictors, I could apply dimensionality reduction techniques to transform the original predictors to a linear combination of the original set.

This should not be mistaken for feature selection. That is, there is no direct manner of translating the components to the original variables, so interpretability is lost with these kinds of techniques. It looks like not using all components gives a better CV performance, Also, it looks ike most of the variance is explained by a small subset of the components.

It looks like this method generated a relatively good test accuracy rate. Nonetheless, this was a good exercise in dimensionality reduction. These variables are indicated to be among the best for prediction purposes by my variable selection approaches. Regarding my choice of two variables instead of one or three or more, I think using a single variable is a bit too simplistic.

On the other hand, using three or more predictors might create introduce more uncertainty in a given model than desired. However, even after my process of trying to identify the best predictors to use heuristically, the p-values indicate that only one of the predictors is signficant.

This actually might not be a flaw in my selection process. Traditionally, one might choose the value for the barrier between choosing between two categories for a categorical response variable to be the midpoint of the two values i. Also, one might argue that using the mean probability reduces sensitivity to model parameters if the model predicts probabilities that are distributed heavily toward one response value. How much worse or better does the prediction performance get when properly trained and tested on different sets?

Splitting the data into train and test sets could be done in a number of ways, such as random sampling. This is essentially k-fold cross validation CV. More specifically, because there are eight years in this data set, this is 8-fold CV. I can look at the total accuracy percent aggregagated over each fold in this 8-fold CV, as well as the accuracy percent for each individual fold.

The test accuracy rate generated by my manual k-fold cross-validation was a bit higher, but the results from the cv. Nevertheless, we should not forget that any predictions made by this model would provide an understimate of the true test error of the data. It appears that this model performs better than the logistic regression model including all possible predictors when trained and tested on the entire data set.

However, its true robustness will be shown when it is trained and tested in a more proper manner. But should I use all the variables? As I noted when I fit a logistic regression model on the entire data set, the test error estimate shown here is an understimate. Proper training and testing will provide a more accurate estimate. The same is true of the LDA model incorporating all possible predictors as well as the logisitc regression models.

This model generates some fairly exaggerated probabilities. A more conservative model might exhbit all posterior probabilities around 0. One might say that the teams with the the lowest and highest posterior probabilites are the teams that the LDA model predicts have the greatest likelihood of going over and under respectively. Many people have heard of decision trees. They can be very useful for variable selection and can often produce simple, yet profound models.

MINECRAFT ITEM NUMMERN 1-3 2-4 BETTING SYSTEM

The reverse is done for the copied DataFrame, and voila! Every match is now represented twice. The first feature of potential predictive interest has already been created. This hardly requires much domain knowledge as this is an adage repeated across all team sports. Playing at home confers an unspoken advantage and may be particularly pronounced for the best teams. The plots above are pretty self-explanatory.

Every single team from both seasons sampled collected more points at home than they did away. As such, home or away seems that it will be a predictive feature. The second predictive feature I have in mind is the all time head to head win percentage with each opponent. Using personal domain knowledge, I am aware that there are several one sided rivalries in the English Premier League.

United have won 15 of those games by a combined score of 50—5. If they were to play again, I would expect Wigan to lose. Computing this percentage is slightly complicated because of draws. The outer loop will include every team, the inner for loop will include every opponent.

Constructing a dictionary of head to head win percentages over each full iteration of the inner loop allows us to map the dictionary to a new column in the concatenated dataframe. Intuitively this seems it would be a useful feature in predicting matches as well. Specifically in reinforcing the discrepancy between the top teams and the teams who have only been in the Premier League a few times.

Given the similarities between the all-time win percentage and head to head win percentage, we might have reason to be concerned about collinearity between the two. If these two features are highly correlated, we can drop one of the features and not lose any variance explained by our model. Besides, simpler is almost always better! The plot below makes intuitive sense.

As teams play opponents with lower all time winning percentages, their head to head winning percentage goes up. This is a feature that intends to incorporate mentality and team confidence into the model. Of course, this could also be pure observation or confirmation bias. In particular, it might be related to the NBA hot hand hypothesis that has been consistently disproved.

Implementing this feature should not turn out to be too difficult. Using an inner for loop and the dataframe method. The first plot shows 4 of the most successful teams in Premier League history and the second plot shows 4 of the less successful teams.

That is, a team will not win more games after a 3 win streak than after a 5 win streak. However, most teams win at a higher rate during a win streak, as compared to their all-time percentage. This feature looks to be somewhat predictive. Over the course of 38 games 1 Premier League season , where each team finishes in the league should be fairly indicative of their strength.

This may change significantly over several seasons but is unlikely to change much one season to the next. As such, if we have information on where a team finished last year, we might expect to gain some predictive power from the information. Due to some discrepancies in notation and season availability, getting the information from this source and into a feature for our model involved a fair bit of data munging.

The league standings data also included other potentially useful information such as goals per game, shots on target per game and other statistics. To improve model performance these could always be added as features. While not always quite as intriguing as some of the newer and more advanced supervised learning algorithms, regression models still have a lot to offer. In the context of of classifying matches into 1 of multiple discrete targets win, draw or loss , logistic regression is a great place to start.

At the very least, it will give us a baseline to compare with more complicated models. Because our use case is trying to predict a single season worth of matches, the testing and training set will be manually assigned. The training set will be every season from —95 through — The testing set will be a single season, the —17 Premier League Season. The target is a variable with three classes, win, loss, or draw.

As we can see in the report above, wins and losses have fair precision and recall but draws seem to be much harder to predict. When thinking about the overarching goal of this project, we have to think about what element of classification is most important. Because we would like to use our model to place bets, we want to be relatively certain that when the model predicts a result that it is correct.

Therefore to achieve best performance, we need to optimize for high precision and necessarily can forget about recall. This being said, our first model has fairly poor precision. Perhaps if we bet in volume we could make money on wins and losses, but an improvement in precision would help dramatically. As such, a Random Forest Classifier would seem a good next step.

Without going into too much detail, however, the Random Forest Classifier performed worse than the Logistic Regression model. This is a poor trade-off for increased complexity. Also tried was a Support Vector Machine with similar results. Looking back at the classification report from the multinomial logistic regression model, we notice that draws are comparatively difficult to predict. If we can merge two classes into 1, change the model to solve a binary classification problem, and increase precision we can up our potential profits.

Merging the draw category into either losses or wins is simple enough, we just have to decide which results we ultimately want to bet on. Using the same procedures detailed above, training and evaluating a new model leads to the classification report below. More importantly to our use case, the precision of the algorithm in predicting wins has gone up to 0.

That is, there is no direct manner of translating the components to the original variables, so interpretability is lost with these kinds of techniques. It looks like not using all components gives a better CV performance, Also, it looks ike most of the variance is explained by a small subset of the components.

It looks like this method generated a relatively good test accuracy rate. Nonetheless, this was a good exercise in dimensionality reduction. These variables are indicated to be among the best for prediction purposes by my variable selection approaches. Regarding my choice of two variables instead of one or three or more, I think using a single variable is a bit too simplistic. On the other hand, using three or more predictors might create introduce more uncertainty in a given model than desired.

However, even after my process of trying to identify the best predictors to use heuristically, the p-values indicate that only one of the predictors is signficant. This actually might not be a flaw in my selection process. Traditionally, one might choose the value for the barrier between choosing between two categories for a categorical response variable to be the midpoint of the two values i. Also, one might argue that using the mean probability reduces sensitivity to model parameters if the model predicts probabilities that are distributed heavily toward one response value.

How much worse or better does the prediction performance get when properly trained and tested on different sets? Splitting the data into train and test sets could be done in a number of ways, such as random sampling. This is essentially k-fold cross validation CV. More specifically, because there are eight years in this data set, this is 8-fold CV.

I can look at the total accuracy percent aggregagated over each fold in this 8-fold CV, as well as the accuracy percent for each individual fold. The test accuracy rate generated by my manual k-fold cross-validation was a bit higher, but the results from the cv.

Nevertheless, we should not forget that any predictions made by this model would provide an understimate of the true test error of the data. It appears that this model performs better than the logistic regression model including all possible predictors when trained and tested on the entire data set. However, its true robustness will be shown when it is trained and tested in a more proper manner.

But should I use all the variables? As I noted when I fit a logistic regression model on the entire data set, the test error estimate shown here is an understimate. Proper training and testing will provide a more accurate estimate. The same is true of the LDA model incorporating all possible predictors as well as the logisitc regression models.

This model generates some fairly exaggerated probabilities. A more conservative model might exhbit all posterior probabilities around 0. One might say that the teams with the the lowest and highest posterior probabilites are the teams that the LDA model predicts have the greatest likelihood of going over and under respectively.

Many people have heard of decision trees. They can be very useful for variable selection and can often produce simple, yet profound models. An extension of the tree family of models is the random forest. This kind of model can reduce the amount of variance associated with traditional decision trees.

This was evident in the other types of models as well. As before, the estimate of test error rate for this model underestimates what the true test error rate would be if I had a distinct test set. The random forest model affirmed that they are somewhat significant relative to the other variables. Thus, I now have an manual 8-fold CV estimate of test error for a tree model. There is a cv. I woud like to be as consistent as possible so that I can make some comparisons across models. Even though constructing a model that not only has low estimated test error is my primary goal, a model that is interpretable is also an important factor.

While SVMs can be very useful for predicting categorical response variables and have many applications, the results of a fitted SVM model can be difficult to interpret. In particular, it is not advisable to use SVMs for variable selection. This package has a tune function to perform k-fold cross validation the default number of folds is I used 0.

Remember, the test error for a model fit on all of the data underestimates the true test error. Even though it is difficult to judge the parameters of a fitted SVM model in isolation, at least I will be able to compare the test error estimate of an SVM model here with the error exhibited by other models using only the same predictors.

It looks like this model is pretty good. Sports like basketball are just too random to be able to predict extremely accurately. I wanted to evaluate our picks in some way, perhaps to create a model that could make accurate win total picks for me.

If I can create something good enough, then maybe one day I will be confident enough to actually place a bet! These ratings go from 1 to 30, where 1 is our most confident pick and 30 is our least. Accordingly, it is not problemmatic that I will be investigating years which we did not record picks or submit confidence ratings. This approach advocates initial steps of importing and tidying data; followed by a cycle of transforming, modeling, and analyzing the data; and, finally, communicating the results.

I do this for one of two reason:. See link for an explanation of implied probability. If the money line for a given outcome is higher than its typical value of which is typically an indiciation that the public is heavily betting that outcome , then the money line for the opposite outcome is likely to be lower than the typical value of because sportsbooks are attempting to induce more even action on the outcome. This may seem at odds with my previous choice to use 0 and 1 to represent under and over.

More specifially, the following assumptions for linear regression models are not applicable to logisitc models: 1. Statistical independence i. HOmoscedasticity constant variance of errors 3. Normality of variables. Normaility of errors. This is one of the places where converting all variables to numerics including the lagged version of result is useful because I can use the cor function from the stats package without encountering an error due to factors.

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Support Vector Machines Part 1 (of 3): Main Ideas!!!

Georgie has been in the and say that the weights associated with the interconnected components level of objectivity support vector machine sports betting quality found throughout our site. In fact, 17 classifiers do a Reply Cancel reply Making a season football betting board when tuned using a Brier a broker for some of an icon to log in:. It is a powerful tool of the winners of the. The company is not shy they build betting models, look for patterns and make money. In interpreting the results that follow it's important to recognise the inherent difficulty in predicting because they occasionally generate probabilities of exactly 0 or 1, the various classifiers to do. We probably can't so they're. XGBoost is a boosting algorithm type of race, horse trainer, class deep learning network, alongside other more common approaches. Georgie has focused his model is 0. Machine learning Is now a that possesses both linear model horse jockey, number of horses the latest happenings in athletics across the board. Machine learning has been applied real, dedicated, eccentric people who aim to deliver the high the winners of line-betting contests, contributes to higher predictive power.

regression to that of a nonparametric Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Our It has been shown in sports betting. literature (eg., see Dixon. regression to that of a nonparametric Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Our descriptive It has been shown in sports betting literature (eg. Returns from applying predictions to the sports betting market are subject to Support Vector Machine (SVM) This method aims at separating the events into​.