zuiderduin masters betting matchups

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Zuiderduin masters betting matchups sporting betting champ

Zuiderduin masters betting matchups

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As ever, also bear in mind that the stats don't include the Grand Prix, so while it doesn't include Henderson's best run, it also doesn't include Cross bombing out in the opening round, then again as he only won two legs there it's not going to dent the figures in the slightest. I can't recommend a bet either way. Henderson probably has the game to get there just about often enough that the line looks close enough to accurate. It's not going to be one where the Henderson, after pulling off an upset, is then spent and can't go further, he'll have had plenty of time between games and it wasn't a factor after beating Michael van Gerwen in Dublin.

Then again, Cross is so good that I really don't think he messes this one up. We only need to look at the preview for the previous round's game against Jan Dekker - Dimitri has not played a lot of darts at all since the Matchplay, and the primary chunk of data then was his first round match, where he was godmoding.

The market has already adjusted quite a bit as mentioned, so the take people have to make is whether van den Bergh, if he had more sample than the legs split evenly between wins and losses isn't enough to give a true idea of form over a long period and that he wouldn't be able to sustain his stats and Mensur should thus be the favourite, or whether the more recent information is more pertinent, and that Dimitri's form and Mensur's lack of it is the critical bit of data that you're looking for and he's a very live underdog.

The obvious thing is that Mensur will need to improve - if he plays as he has been doing, Dimitri's current game, even the not quite so excellent one he showed against Dekker, should be enough to win. I think Mensur will improve, but I think to about the point where he makes it such that it's not a bet.

My stats don't include the world youth, which Dimitri won, or the World Series finals where Dimitri made the quarters. Mensur's been here in big TV events a lot more than Dimitri has, and while he's full of confidence, this is already the deepest he's run in any major event and the potential enormity of what he might do could easily catch up with him. Six of the last sixteen written up, and still no bets. Seems odd, but that's where we are. Wanted this up yesterday but dartsdatabase was down all evening and I couldn't get the head to head stats, oh well, it's here now!

Taylor has had little trouble so far, only dropping the one set against Chris Dobey when he was already cruising in the match, and not dropping a set against Justin Pipe who played OK in patches but missed far too many doubles.

Brown produced a great performance to see off James Wade in the opening round, but regressed quite a lot and was tangled up in a scrappy affair against Zoran Lerchbacher in the second round, each set going with throw until, at in sets in a deciding leg, the Austrian missed one dart at tops for the set and let Keegan in to pin a outshot for the match. If Keegan is going to stand any chance, he's going to have to play with freedom and the quality that he showed in the first game - if he plays like he did against Lerchbacher, then this match may not go on very long at all.

That said, if he does play as he did against Wade, then his chances are not completely zero - in that game he managed eight out of twelve legs won in fifteen darts or less including one twelve darter , and was there or there abouts when Wade was winning with a 91 average in the losing legs. This said, Phil hasn't been firing on all cylinders and may opt to try to crank it up a bit to warm up before a potential quarter final with Gary Anderson, Keegan may potentially be overawed with playing Phil as Pipe appeared to be, at least in interviews in what is the biggest match of his career to date, and will not have the crowd on his side - there's a lot of things that need to go perfectly for Brown to realise his best case scenario - which only puts him at a coinflip.

Anderson's looked very smooth so far defeating a pair of dangerous preliminary qualifiers, obliterating Jeff Smith in a second set for the ages, and putting two sets on the board without reply and holding off a nine dart attempt against Paul Lim before coming through I'm thinking that Anderson's playing far too well for West to stand any sort of chance in a first to four sets match.

We've seen glimpses of what Anderson can do, and while we've also seen what West can do, both here and in spots throughout the year, I get the feeling that West may just be content to have reached this stage, and that if West's top game shows up, Anderson can just kick into another gear if needed. The stats are fairly consistent throughout the year the only difference for Anderson between the first two samples being one UK Open match helps for that, with West not qualifying for that at all , and they all indicate that Anderson should be a prohibitive favourite.

Coming up later are previews of the Suljovic and Cross matches - stay tuned. Wrapping done, TV crap as usual, still a bit of time before heading to the pub, so let's start on the round of 16 writeups! It's an important game for both - van Gerwen obviously wants to continue his amazing winning streak and claim a third world title, which was most recently extended by winning twelve straight legs against James Wilson, whereas Price is looking to cause a massive upset, or at least put up a good performance which would improve his chances of making the Premier League.

The figures all indicate a win for Michael van Gerwen, which is to be expected, and they don't fluctuate a great deal, but surprisingly things do seem to get better for Price as we have got smaller and smaller samples from a more recent set of events - surprising as van Gerwen's won everything recently, whereas Price's best run came right at the start of the season.

I can't possibly think that it's van Gerwen getting worse, it is more likely that Price is throwing better darts - that said, in that UK Open run he did beat Justin Pipe, Dave Pallett, Paul Hogan, Ian White and Alan Norris, so it's not necessarily the A-list that will shut down your opportunities at winning a leg in the sixth visit, and may make Price's won leg speed profile look a bit worse than it might otherwise be.

Plus that head to head record - good god, if Price at least knew he'd won in the past then maybe I could see the unthinkable. I could easily see Price getting a set - the figures posted seem fairly quiet on the chances of a win and taking odds against van Gerwen doing so seems incredibly dangerous, but I can't recommend anything on the outright scoreline.

In the two games, like Barney, he won 21 legs, getting 15 of those legs in fifteen darts or less, slightly less than Raymond but getting an extra twelve darter in the process. The back looking to be in good form in comparison to last year, it's perhaps a surprise given the amount of darts played nowadays that neither has met for over three years, their last encounter being a group game in the Grand Slam, but there you go.

They've met on big stages previously, on top of that World Championship match, Barney's also won a UK Open final, twice defeated him at the Zuiderduin Masters in their BDO days, in that Grand Slam year he also won in the European Championship and the Matchplay, with Vincent's only wins coming in Pro Tour level events in and - although at least that latter one was a final.

Barney's is better, as it has been throughout the year, but is it that much better that we can consider a Barney bet, or is it not that much better that we look at Vincent, twice a quarter finalist here, to keep the run going?

The scoreline projections put Barney to win at a ratio in the whole data set, which is good for him in comparison to the line, the Matchplay onwards being , so about the same, but more recently it's only , so just about and more in comparison with where the line is at present. I think the key thing here is the more recent data - Vincent's had back troubles for a while now, and they seem to have cleared up more recently and are allowing him to play his better game at the business end of the season.

As such I'm not going to recommend any bets in this one either - Barney should win, but Vincent is playing well enough right now that an upset is not out of the question. That's one pair of games down, I think next up I'll look at the Taylor and Anderson part of the draw as that seems to be easier to do on paper, before getting my teeth into the interesting ties that are Suljovic and van den Bergh, then Henderson against Cross.

Nothing's coming out this evening, so a Merry Christmas to all readers. Those stats should immediately start ringing alarm bells, particularly the last two, as they project Lewis to be a favourite in a rematch from this year where Wright won with Lewis only scraping a single leg won. Let's look at how this might have happened - obviously Wright was playing much of his best stuff earlier in the season where he won the UK Open and three European Tour events, that's a given, and Lewis's stats early in the season were limited to just a handful of European Tour events.

But let's look from September on at what Lewis has done - he played Maastricht and won seven legs, one being a twelve and three more being fifteens. The next week in Mannheim he won eleven legs, nine in fifteen darts, one of those being a twelve. What about when he's losing? A casual It's not a huge sample, but I kind of think the stats aren't lying that much, and the eyetest from the first round certainly backs things up.

Both won just the nine legs obviously, Richardson with seven of his nine in fifteen darts, while Norris managed just the five, although one was a great twelve darter to help claw back the second set. I've been stung by betting against Norris a few times, particularly on TV where he seems to do somewhat better than on the European Tour.

Let's sanity test these figures - Norris is certainly a bit more consistent, although neither can really call themselves that. Over the whole season Norris averaged just less than a point lower than Richardson on winning legs, but was about the same amount higher on losing legs, so his range is a bit tighter. The full year certainly has a much bigger sample for Norris, closing in on legs played albeit with a slight losing record , while Richardson is down just over legs played, but went into the black following the Huybrechts match.

This should be a Richardson bet, but both of them are pretty swingy so there's a lot of variance involved. I'm inclined not to bet as I think Norris has more gears that he can move into if needed, which he often does in the big games. Then again, I remember the European Championship where both players had a common opponent in Simon Whitlock - Richardson lost , but Norris lost There's also probably more pressure on Norris - he's defending a quarter final, and given how wide open things are, if he gets through this and can push Wright if it is Wright hard, or even win, then he could get a Premier League invite.

I won't bet and probably regret it. How is this working? Let's look at what they've done in that time period - Whitlock had three games in the Euros where he got around half his legs in fifteen darts. In his first round against Martin Schindler, he won eleven legs, and he could only finish two of those within fifteen darts. That's not good. Is it a case of his opponent's pushing him really well and causing him to miss out on premium leg winning chances?

So only one real truly elite player, and in his losing legs there he managed 91 - bang on his season long average. Webster came through a surprisingly resistant Devon Petersen, and the worry is that Petersen won his legs the same way that he's done all year - by his opponent letting him. Petersen won eight legs in the match but only one was a fifteen darter. Webster did well enough to get eleven legs, seven in fifteen darts, but only averaged 84 on the legs Petersen won, which is kind of bang on an 18 dart leg performance.

He needs to tighten that up quite a bit, but I think he should be able to do that - at all the other majors in the run up to Christmas he's been clocking off in fifteen darts in good order. Webster's got to take a bunch of confidence in coming through a bit of a grind of a game, and should be able to open up against an opponent who he knows he can turn over - 0.

There's not much to go on here apart from the worlds so let's look at that. Moreover, the manner of victory was much more impressive. I'm really not sure why the bookies have this even - sure we know that Alcinas was a very competent player five years ago, but that's five years ago now, and sure we know his floor form has been good, but we don't know how good and whether he can actually bring it to the stage.

Will aim to get a couple of third round games up each of the next two days, but that may be done quicker or slower, they'll be up before kickoff regardless, particularly the Barney and van Gerwen games which are the first two up. Firstly, what a shame Paul Lim couldn't pin that nine dart event, that would be the greatest story of all time. Oh well. Suljovic didn't have it all his own way against Thornton, doubling being OK but scoring still off kilter, he's still not managed to kick a leg off with three perfect darts and only hit the single yesterday.

Was a tale of 's - Thornton missed his for in sets, Suljovic hit his for the match. Who knows what happens if Thornton pins the bull? Suljovic definitely needs to improve or Dimitri beats him next round. Round 1 - van Barneveld vs North, Anderson vs Jacques Set winning chances on throw: to date - van Barneveld Both players came through domestic Pro Tour debutants with relative ease, Anderson having a little bit more trouble with Jacques able to get a set, while North continued to struggle to translate his form game to the stage - scoring was OK but doubling was a bit of an issue for him.

Those numbers are fluctuating wildly. There's a rare European Tour outing in there where he was playing OK, but that's not a huge chunk of the sample. By comparison, Anderson only has some middling European Tour runs in there. In the section that looks best for Anderson, he's including some much better European Tour runs in terms of the numbers he's put up, whereas Barney just had a mediocre Matchplay. It's hard to say which of these are the truest reflection, the best Anderson one came from the section where we're still counting the form he was in during the summer where he got his Pro Tour win and his unranked TV title, which gives us a simple conclusion I guess - if Anderson can bring his best game, he can win this often enough, if not, van Barneveld's solidity makes this too hard a task, if Anderson has the sorts of games where he's missing doubles, having a couple of visits where he doesn't hit a big treble in a leg, then Raymond will not let him off.

There's enough uncertainty here for it to be a no bet. I've said this before that, for reasons I've not been able to work out yet, my stats seem to underrate Gurney by quite some distance. Even accounting for that though, we still need to find a way to knock Henderson's winning chances, which even in the worst sample that's the most recent, give him a 1 in 4 shot before we consider what might happen in a deciding set, down to the lower teens where it becomes incorrect to punt on the underdog.

Firstly, that the stats do not include the Grand Prix negates both of them, as that was both of their best tournaments. How about consistency? Gurney's losing average is a lot tighter to his winning average than Henderson's is. As an all round solid finisher, that's a possibility I guess, he's played a lot of the European Tour and will have had lots of chances to take legs a bit easier against a generally weaker opponent, then again at the same time Gurney has gone real deep in all relevant majors so will need to have played against top players in longer matches.

Hendo's played Gurney four times previously. One was the Grand Prix, obviously, but before that there was a game in Europe earlier this year where Gurney got home but only had the two good legs in comparison to Henderson's three, and in Henderson won a deciding leg in the UK Open the previous game being too long ago to be relevant. This is clearly reliant on a few things to go right, and doesn't happen all that often, but at the price we're offered it doesn't need to either - 0.

Gerwyn Price and Vincent van der Voort were two games that I thought would go the way they did, but nowhere near the size of victories in either case, Price is probably done barring miracles but I'd think he's done enough at this stage to make the Premier League with every other marginal player cocking the worlds up epically to date.

Their first round games were somewhat contrasting - Cross having what looked like a fairly routine win over Japanese qualifier Seigo Asada, but while hitting three twelve darters was still forced to deciding legs in two sets, whereas Smith needed a deciding set to get past dangerous debutant Steve Lennon, clocking off seven out of eleven won legs in a "par" of fifteen darts.

Cross has clocked up an amazing amount of matches in recent times, legs won in the smallest sample listed compared to Smith's 54, so those figures where Cross looks the best can in no way be put down to dubious statistics. He is that good, and his consistency on the pre-worlds stats was much tighter than Smith's, with around a two and a half point difference between winning and losing, in comparison to Smith's five.

My first thought would be that Smith does enough that, if he brings his best game, he can take out Cross often enough for it to be a bet on Smith. Over the course of the full season data, this is a slam dunk Smith bet, but over more recent samples, Cross looks to be the place to put your money, although not anywhere near as clear cut as in the whole year sample. You've got to bear in mind that the full year includes Smith's only win this season, and is from when Cross was only really warming up.

I'm thinking that I avoid this and just enjoy the fireworks. I don't think too many pundits saw that one coming. It will be difficult to get past Michael and think he will see in his second reign. Both will fight through gruelling matches with Gary Anderson and Raymond van Barneveld respectively. Van Gerwen will win his second world title, smashing Wright who once again fails to live with exhibition-level darts from the Dutch master. But what about Phil Taylor?

They are set to meet in the first round, and if they do, I feel the victor will go on to do well in the competition. Cullen looks unflappable, as calm as they come and Cadby has been superb and will have nothing to fear or lose as he takes his bow. Christopher Kempf: The player to watch is Steve West, who has turned heads over the past few months and will enjoy the good fortune of being placed in a relatively open section of the draw. He has the talent to overcome first-round opponent Mervyn King and reach a potential third-round contest with James Wade, who may find himself facing unexpectedly stiff opposition en route to the quarter-finals.

Richard Edwards: Barney! He is looking so good. Dave McNally: I feel that there will be an early exit for him. Painter or Caven to beat him in the second round. Christopher Kempf: Phil Taylor realises that his competitive position relative to the other players, especially van Gerwen, is declining year upon year. He will look to make one final assault to win a 17th title and write a fitting epilogue for a legendry career. Though he should have no trouble reaching the quarter-finals, he will fall to Barney in an explosive quarter-final.

Dave South: I would love to see Phil win the event then go on to announce his retirement in style, but I think a third round possible tie with Kim Huybrechts is a format which the Belgian will look to derail the Power. Third round or quarter-finals for me. Both are great young talents, one Smith enjoyed much of the year ranked in the top 10 but has experienced a shocking collapse in form, while the other Evans battled and scrapped his way through the Pro Tour to qualify for a third World Championship.

What a great way to start a Friday morning nine hours ahead here than with some darts! Barney has a tough opener and with the resurgence of Webster recently it will not make either game as straight forward as the odds imply. It promises to be superb as two of the more mercurial players come head to head. Dave South: Jamie Caven will certainly have the pressure on his shoulders up first.

In addition, Chris Dobey could stun the out of form Justin Pipe. Daryl Gurney may also have his work cut out against Jermaine Wattimena. I think Bunting has got a tough match but will scrape through. Justin Pipe v Chris Dobey and Vincent van der Voort v Max Hopp are both extremely hard to call and I would edge towards the unseeded player going through.

Dave McNally: The Circus Tavern was a closer, tighter environment and had a knack of generating a high quality atmosphere. Since the move to the Ally Pally that seems to have been lost. Richard Edwards: Having spent most of the past 13 years living in Asia, I have not yet visited the Ally Pally thankfully dealing with that this year as will be visiting England and getting in three sessions. I went to the World Championship at Circus Tavern and the close atmosphere and smaller crowds were right up my street.

Christopher Kempf: The Circus Tavern will always have a strong nostalgic appeal, not least for hosting the greatest darts match in history Taylor-van Barneveld Nostalgia gives many of us an irrational attachment to the Circus Tavern, for what matters is not the size of the hall or of the crowd, but the stature of the men who fill it. Dave South: Darts has changed with the times and has an ever growing audience reach which is going global.

I believe the event will remain in London, but it could possibly move again with the right transport links as the demand for the sport in the next few years continues to grow. Having qualified as one of the International Qualifiers, the Australian was unseeded for the tournament and had to get past the third, sixth and 11th seeds on his way to reaching the semi-finals.

The two players could hardly be separated on the Alexandra Palace stage, as the match went all the way to an 11th and final set. There was a certain glow about watching the Winmau World Masters last weekend at the Lakeside. Now this is a good venue for darts. The Winter Gardens, mainly one levelled seating, near to the action and within touching distance of the players. It all adds to the sense of theatre and apart from a select few at the front as in the usual venues, the Winter Gardens leaves the spectator feeling as though they have been part of the event, rather than a casual observer.

The Lakeside in my eyes was made for darts. Large, round tables for seating on the ground level, offering perfect views of the stage. Plus, a chance to get to know strangers on the tables, who by the end of a session are one of your mates for the rest of the week.

The layered balconies are even close to the action, not high up in the gods with no chance of seeing anything that is going on. Atmosphere is created because of the low ceilings and its original design for bands and cabaret acts, allowing the acoustics to resonate in the venue, plus the bars are tucked away but allow for watching of the arrows while in the queue. The newer venues are concrete palaces of identikit design, the equivalent of Bolton Wanderers or Huddersfield Town football stadia for those who have followed their team or go there regularly.

His triumph at Lakeside this past weekend certainly had an air of finality to it, for with one notable exception, Durrant steamrolled the BDO field en route to a spectacular defence of his World Masters title. That exception was Wesley Harms, who looked for the first half hour of the match as if he was about do to the BDO number one what Duzza had done to so many opponents in Harms would only give Durrant one more dart at the double in the first two sets as he opened up a lead.

Just as it seemed that Durrant, throwing first in the third set, would begin to take the advantage over his lower-ranked rival, he failed to check out from 58, sticking his tongue out in disgust as two leg-clinching darts missed their mark. Duzza abandoned the second leg, and with it the fourth set, to Harms with four indifferent visits.

Yet at this point Durrant was still only four legs behind.

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Haines I think wins, and could challenge either opponent. Zoran Lerchbacher 73 v Matthew Dennant Lerchbacher's the only Austrian here, which given their relative strength nowadays is somewhat of a surprise. A last 16 run in qualifier 4 is why he is here, notably beating Adrian Lewis. He's alright, but doesn't kill in 15 that often, lets too many legs go beyond 18 darts, and his scoring in losing legs is only He has a cash here from , and is in the second year of a tour card needing cash urgently to retain it, having not done much at all.

Limited data of one European Tour game suggests Lerchbacher should be the favourite. We know what he can do and he can still show up, and if he does he should beat Paul Rowley. Rowley, like Baxter, won a card in January, and got slightly more cash in qualifying, a last 32 in the opener beating Burnett and Thornton was nearly enough, and a mincash made him safe.

He's made the last 64 here in , and had a tour card from so has some experience although Baxter obviously destroys him there , but has mostly been playing the Challenge Tour and doing while not bad, not great, and on the full tour has never really done it. North also won a tour card in January, and has three grand already, which only just missed out on a bye to round 3 on countback.

He also has a cash as a pub qualifier, this time from , and was young enough to play the PDC world youth in , so still has time on his side. Whether he has the game to handle Baxter in a big game is an important question - having beaten Adrian Lewis, Norris and Gurney in his cashing runs, it's very possible.

O'Connor has shown plenty of brief flashes of what he can do, but has never really kicked on to the next level. I suppose it's not too late at the age of 30, and he still just about has a tour card, but will need to do the likes of what he did in the first qualifier more often, where he reached the quarters, knocking out a few decent players but not hitting any top 32 calibre opponents.

Lennon made the world youth quarters, and had two good runs on the first two days of Q-School before grabbing the card outright on day 3 when he'd be safe for one on points otherwise. Two last 32's and a last 64 were good enough for a first round bye, his best win was over Norris, but otherwise only beat some of the top 64 Europeans in terms of notable names. Think this a case of which O'Connor shows up, he seems like a stage player so that may be enough - he leads that in experience at least from the Grand Prix.

He missed out on cashing by one game last year, losing to Robbie Green, and only got in this year by beating Willy van de Wiel in a deciding leg in the last 64 of the final qualifier. His opponent, Biggs, is an unknown who won at Coventry, but looks to be about an 80 average player at inter-county level so shouldn't be without chances.

Worsley is also in the second year of a card and like Meeuwisse missed out on a cash last year by one game. He qualified through three mincashes, and did knock off Dolan and Gurney in those efforts. Prins comes back for another effort, and was most recently here in where he made the last Making the last 16 of Lakeside in , he can play to some extent, and could be a danger to any of these. Tony Newell 86 or Mark Layton Unranked, Q v Brian Woods or Damian Smith Unranked, Q Newell's been around the tour for a while and is one of those that's frequently described as a dangerous player while never doing anything to show why.

He cashed last year, beating Paul Hogan then winning only one leg against Adrian Lewis. Layton has been here on more than one occasion and cashed in , and has cashed the World Masters previously, and has also won a couple of decent quality opens in the last couple of years.

Woods regained a card in but had a really poor year, his last 32 run to make it here got him more money than any event in , and he didn't have to beat anyone better than Alan Tabern to do it. Smith has had a couple of poor attempts at Q-School and has some cashes on the Challenge Tour including a semi final in , but nothing to really scare Woods. It should be the two PDC players to move on with Newell to make the money. He made the last 16 in the second qualifier then didn't play any of the others, not beating anyone better than Gilding in the process.

Shepherd had a great Q-School, and made the last 16 of the first event, only needing to beat Painter of note, but that was enough for a first round bye. It's the sort of game that Barilli needs to win if he's to be taken seriously, and one that Shepherd could use to get some solid cash behind him as he looks to accumulate and retain the card in two years' time.

Shepherd probably has the form. Ted Evetts 92 v Paul Milford or Brian Dawson Unranked, Q Evetts has looked fairly tidy when he's got near a stage - not making a real hash of anything, just running into better players as he gains experience. This is a good shot at making another name for himself in a TV major - he hit a nine in qualification, and got his bye to round two from two last 32 runs. Milford lost his card this year, and didn't get close to regaining it at Q-School with just one run to the last Three mincashes were just enough to creep into the field, not beating anyone above the calibre of Jamie Caven to do so.

He crept in last year and missed out one before the money, so, unlike Dawson, he knows this stage. Dawson was a Lakeside quarter finalist in , and has a lot of experience on the BDO side - last 16 of the most recent World Masters, previously a quarter finalist at the Zuiderduin, his numbers at this Lakeside in a close loss to Jeff Smith were respectable. I fancy he should beat Milford, but Evetts can step up and get into the money. A last 32 appearance straight off the bat was topped up by a mincash, and this is a decent opportunity for the Saint in a section with three pub qualifiers.

Robertson is returning for a third crack having won at Aberdeen - he cashed in and was one short of doing the same twelve months later. He's been a bit under the radar in terms of tracked events, but in intercounty he's averaging below 80, so Tabern should make it through this one. Carroll has no dartsdatabase record having won in Liverpool, and very little can be easily researched about him.

He isn't on debut, having played in , and did have a Pro Tour last 16 in Think Walsh might have a bit more about him but would need to see odds given the lack of info on Carroll. Scott Taylor v Brett Claydon , Q or Paul Barham Unranked, Q Taylor had a good qualification, making one last 16 run and cashing on three other occasions, following winning his tour card in January.

He did beat Beaton in that run, but nobody else of note, and looking at previous stats he seems very hot and cold - 5 from 9 in 15 or less, but also lost 15 and only averaged 77 while doing so. Claydon made the last 16 in a qualifier last year to make it and fall a round short of the money, but didn't attempt Q-School and seems to be trying the BDO circuit. Just about averaging 80 in county, he'll need to come through Barham, who is still fairly young, having made the semis of the world youth in , a year where he made the worlds proper from Youth Tour exploits.

He's averaging a similar amount in county, so this could be close, but Taylor has the bye for a reason and I think he makes the last Ross Twell v Paul Harvey or Joe Davis Twell has a card from the Youth Tour, at least by the looks of it, where he had three wins last year, and was a tour card holder from as well. Three cashes including a last 32 run were enough to face either Harvey, who cashed here in and punted at Q-School but fell off after an OK first couple of days, or Davis, who did worse but made the last 32 on day 3 out of nowhere beating Lynn, Caven and Leung.

He did play the Development Tour a few years ago with no success, so I think Harvey may be the better player, but Twell is likely the best of the three. Martin Lukeman v Matt Padgett or Paul Cartwright Unranked, Q Lukeman has a Challenge Tour win in and a few other decent scores, as well as making the semis of the BDO Gold Cup last year, and got three cashes including a last 32 run to make the second round here - he beat nobody good to reach that stage but ran Beaton close to lose Padgett has been around for a while, but hasn't had a card since He made the worlds in and the last 32 here in , and got a Challenge Tour win last season.

Cartwright made this event in but fell well before the money to Kirk Shepherd, so I think Padgett has the experience and the quality, and should be more than live to come through Lukeman as well. Roy is the standout name, having played here since the dawn of time and making the money last year. Edwards has a couple of previous appearances but didn't get out of the preliminaries, Pass fell away from the scene at least the tracked scene after losing a card in , which was the last time he played here, but has some tour experience, and Parletti returns for a third straight year, but lost in the last on the last two occasions.

Roy has to be the favourite just based on a wealth of experience, that he keeps coming back here shows he still has the game within him, and this is a fairly favourable draw. Urgh, Mensur, why you not play. Bunch of action.

Congrats on Michael, Simon and Peter on binking their respective events, and the field is now set - there has to be a bunch of hugely disappointed players, amongst others Robbie Green, Steve West, Max Hopp, Rowby John Rodriguez and Dimitri van den Bergh - none of which you would describe as being out of form, but at the same time huge credit to a lot of players who you wouldn't have thought might qualify, at least not direct to the money, such as Chris Quantock, Mick Todd and Ryan Searle.

Interested to see what Dobey can do from this stage - having not qualified at all last year, he's now straight into round 3, so gogogo. Best weekend long performance - going to split this between Mervyn King, Michael Smith, Gerwyn Price and Kim Huybrechts - all cashed all three and did so deep enough to register decent cash, none of them messed up early, and while none of them went hugely deep, they all did more or less as well as you might expect.

Best tournament long performance - two horse race between two players on Saturday's event - it's either Ronny Huybrechts with his nine darter and wins over Gary Anderson, Terry Jenkins, Ian White, Darren Webster and Michael Smith, four of which were in deciding legs for bonus clutch points, or it goes to Rob Cross, with wins over Wade, Chisnall, Thornton and Klaasen in his run to the semi final.

Hard to say but I think I have to give it to Huybrechts for the grittiness combined with the brilliance. Worst weekend long performance - got to go to Josh Payne. Was flipping between him and Joe Murnan, until I saw Murnan whitewashed him yesterday. Losing in the last to whatever a Craig Gilchrist is, then the aforementioned result, then being edged by Simon Stevenson isn't great. Oh well, enjoy your weekend off. Worst single match performance - there's a few contenders, but I think I have to give it to Jeffrey de Graaf.

You could have got rid of Jamie Caven from this event, but you had to lose and let him in on tiebreakers. I am disappointed. In the wake of Michael van Gerwen's two nine darters in the same match today at Wigan, you do have to wonder whether he is the greatest of all time. For me it's no question - it's yes. Sure, Phil may have won sixteen world titles, but the level of competition must have been lower.

A lot lower. Taylor certainly played at an elite level, but in my eyes he's effectively a flat track bully. Start van Gerwen's career in and he's already on 20 world titles, and he'd still be the right side of Fortunately, the type of stats I use aren't concerned with level of opponent.

I'm pretty tempted to go look back at some of the peak Taylor finals in terms of averages probably would consider the vs Priestley in 98, vs Part in 01, vs Manley in 06 and the vs Barney in 09, to give a spread throughout his career - may also chuck in the vs Bristow in 90 from the unified days , of which I know at least the Manley final is on Youtube allowing us to pull the stats.

Picking these games would be representative of the best of Taylor on the most important stage where we know he's giving it everything, and to see what he did will be hugely enlightening. Naturally, there is the accusation that improvements in technology make the more recent player better, but there's been tungsten darts since Taylor was a kid, and while the boards nowadays have thinner wires and no staples, looking back at that final, it's not like the staples would reject any high scoring darts, and in general I don't recall masses of bounceouts.

Monday, 6 February Staying alive. Sadly not a Steve Beaton post. In the wake of the Super Bowl, we have a situation that comes up a lot in darts that is similar to American football - you have a spot where you are deep in opposition territory down by, say, 10 points, and you are on fourth down with not long left. The conservative play is to kick the field goal and make it a one possession game, but it's usually the wrong play, as it takes time and skill to get all the way down the field to then score the game tying touchdown, when you've already done that - you need a touchdown, so go for it now, then you know what you need to do if you don't get it, if you do, you then only need to get into field goal range, which is somewhat easier.

There's similar spots like, when losing by 15 points, teams will usually kick an extra point after scoring to ensure a 1 possession game, which then goes horribly wrong if they mess up a two point conversion later - go for the two now, and you have time to play faster knowing you still need two scores. The darts comparison comes with checkouts of things like or But is it maximising your chances of winning the leg?

If you hit 25, you still need a treble to then leave a shot at bull - which if you miss, is likely to still leave you on a two dart finish, either 25 or missing completely and not lucking out and hitting single 10, 18 etc. The bull could be obscured by your first dart, but at the same time, it could easily leave you with a good marker so I'm inclined to say that may end up evens in the long run without any observed evidence to the contrary.

Hitting the bull first on either checkout leaves you with a treble-double outshot, and in both cases you still need a treble to leave a 1 dart outshot if you miss. Of course, you can go for a second bull on , which leaves fat 17 for tops if you hit The question is whether this is more likely to kill the leg than not going for bull first?

Say you go for treble 20 on , or treble 19 on If you hit, then in the first instance you can stay there for double 6, particularly if it's a good marker, or go double-double, either 18's twice or 20's and 16's. In the latter case, you can go double double 20, try for treble 18 for double 12, it'll be situational depending on what your opponent is on.

If you miss, then just stay on the same target and get four more of the same score to leave double 16 you can deviate to other doubles if you hit treble second dart obviously or tops. Is this more likely to finish than going bull first? If you have enough time for two visits, it seems almost certain.

If you only have enough time for one visit, then you're going to need to run some numbers as to how often you hit each target and work the probabilities from there. My gut feeling would be that going bull first kills less often in that visit, but people seeing that your chances of finishing if going for a treble is zero, rather than something larger if you hit some part of the bull, lead people to go for the worse route knowing they have a backup plan, regardless of how unlikely it is.

Your opponent's score is huge in this as well - going bull first if your opponent is not on a finish is idiocy, but what if he's on ? This seems equally mad. The rest would need to be worked out, it's a case of getting the data. I'd assume that some players have already done the sort of analysis needed probably the Dutch I'd guess , but you never know.

Of course, the trick is to start counting earlier and hit the bull the visit before to not leave the shot in the first place. PDC ranking season is now under way - congrats to Peter Wright for taking down two of the three events, ending his enormous losing streak to Michael van Gerwen in the process, and nice work by Simon Whitlock to continue to trend up in form and take the other one. Got to credit anyone that takes down a tournament that requires a round of So what happened of note in the UK Open qualifiers?

Will look at this by giving out some awards: Best weekend long performance - Fairly easy to give this to Wright, but I'll give this to Steve Beaton instead - only denied by Wright in the quarter finals in the first, beat van Gerwen in the second before losing a deciding leg to Chisnall in the quarters again, and a run to the last 16 today.

Solid, consistent play sees him up in sixth of the merit table, and gives him a good base to work on for qualification for major tournaments. Best tournament long performance - Could give this to Pete Hudson or Mick Todd making a semi final out of nowhere, but Whitlock taking it in a field this tough, needing to take out three of my live top four in the last four rounds, has to get the nod. Best single match performance - Anyone taking down MvG should be in with a shout, but Ritchie Edhouse?

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It should also come as little surprise that the North Carolina native and Georgia resident tends to play some of his best golf in the Southeast part of the country; in fact, his lone PGA TOUR victory came in Greensboro, just about four hours up the road from Augusta. What makes him the safe play here is the simple fact that he rarely takes a week off. Munoz owns top finishes in his last four starts and especially excels with an iron in his hands. Yes … seriously.

Since missing the U. Open due to a positive test for COVID, Scheffler has played five events with pretty lukewarm results, failing to finish better than tied for 17th. Not only do I love what Bryson has done recently, reimagining both his body and his swing to fit what the analytics tell us about striving for greater distance off the tee — I respect it, too.

So, why am I fading the tournament favorite then? It goes back to what I wrote about Thomas in the opening section above. This is a second-shot golf course, the type of track which requires sublime iron and wedge play in order to succeed. For me, it really comes down to this: I trust Thomas not to mention Reed, Schauffele, Rahm and others from yards more than I trust DeChambeau from 75; I trust those players from more than I trust him from I completely understand the rationale for Bryson bulking up and swinging harder and trying to gain more distance off the tee.

Open recently. Sports Betting. Best Books. Pictured: Justin Thomas. Jason Sobel. Download App. The must-have app for golf bettors. Custom scoreboard for your bets. Free picks from experts. Live odds for every golfer. Download Now. Read now. For a more detailed breakdown of the course feel free to head to the official Masters website where an aerial flyover is offered of every hole. Only a couple months removed from his breakthrough major victory at the US Open, Bryson rightfully enters this week as the favorite.

During the past few weeks in his off time, there are rumors that he has even added more distance to his driver. It is setting up for him to play the Masters in a way that no one has seen before. The lines he will look at off-the-tee will allow him to have short irons and wedges into almost every green. Want to talk about stats? He is 1st in the field in total strokes gained, 2nd in tee-to-green, and 3rd in approach. How about recent form?

Maybe Masters experience? Last four trips have seen results of 2nd, 11th, 4th, and 6th. His past three trips to Augusa have all resulted in finishes of 27th or better, including a 4th in And finally, he is top-5 in the field in strokes gained off-the-tee, ball striking, and tee-to-green.

After what many would consider a rocky summer, he has been shaping into much better form this fall. His past four starts have seen finishes of 8th, 8th, 21st, and 17th. The stats over the past 50 rounds do leave a little to be desired 39th in approach and 58th in scrambling but when he is at his best, he is still one of the top few golfers in the world.

The current 4 golfer in the world needs the green jacket to complete the major slam and I think he gets it done this week. At the top of the board, it is hard to find solid value with some of the numbers that are being offered. There are great arguments to make when looking at all the favorites heading into the event. Jumping down the board a little bit, Webb stands out very clearly to me as the exact definition of value.

With how great of summer and fall seasons the top golfers in the world have had, Webb has been climbing under the radar but not due to his play at all. He has not finished outside the top 17 in his past six starts. During that stretch, he has gained strokes in all major categories, including 3.

He is also 3rd in the field in strokes gained: scrambling, which certainly helps around Augusta National. He finished 5th last year. He had a top-5 finish on tour only two months ago and a win at the RBC back in June. The 7 golfer in the world looks to be a great play with much higher odds than someone of his pedigree should be.

Back in July, he went on a stretch where he finished inside the top in four consecutive starts. Last week, he was able to post a 7th place finish in Houston which will certainly boost his confidence heading into Augusta. He found success last week by gaining 7. His short game has always been a strength, ranking 3rd in the field this week. Looking at course history, it would appear that Day certainly has a good feel for the Masters. He has played the event 8 times and never finished worse than 28th, including a 5th place last year.

Benny An has had a really rough few months of golf heading into this week. His best finish since August is a 35th at the Zozo and he has missed three of his last five cuts. Si Woo Kim on the other hand finished 21st last year and 24th the year before. He also has two top finishes in his last three starts.

This one is easy for me. Both are in good form and both are looking for their first green jacket, with Rahm looking for his first major. When two golfers who are closely aligned in stats and recent form are matched up with one another, I look for any edge I can find. DJ has done everything but win at Augusta National. He has finished inside the top in his last four trips including a 2nd place finish last year. His hall of fame career would be solidified with a Masters title. Rahm is a world class golfer but DJ is on another level right now.

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