Latest issue Investments. Spread betting. Perhaps you should too. Here's how to short it Trading. Matthew Partridge explains the best way to short it. How my trading tips fared in Spread betting. Winning ideas included going long media group ITV and shorting electric-lorry maker Nikola.
Most Popular. Free bank accounts could soon be a thing of the past. But paid-for accounts can come with plenty of worthwhile perks, says Ruth Jackson-Kirby. Markets are starting to bet on inflation returning — you should too Inflation. John Stepek explains wh…. It sounds pleasant but it is hard to see him surpassing Mr Khan in the vote. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in , with the country voting against becoming independent.
However, given the rise of the Scottish National Party, coupled with criticism over Brexit, a concerted drive for Johnson to give the Scottish people a second referendum is well underway. Despite this desire for another referendum vote, the timing of when this will take place still remains distant. Twenty twenty was quite the year in US politics.
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Brexit EU referendum before The United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, Voters will get to elect a new vice president, or re-elect Donald Trump and Mike Pence. This election promises to be extra exciting, with both main candidates so close in the polls.
In order to understand the upcoming US election, you first need an idea how presidential elections work in the US. The American democratic system is unique in that it is an indirect election. Voters elect delegates , who will in turn elect the president. Each state gets delegates based on its population. However, these delegates are not distributed equally. This explains how Trump became president in , while Clinton still won the popular vote.
This also explains why bookies offer bets on the popular vote as well as the ultimate winner electoral vote. The delegates system was designed to protect states with smaller populations from being overpowered by states with larger populations.
While most states will send all of their delegates to the winner of that state, Maine and Nebraska states will divide their delegates between the candidates. In the primaries , each party holds a pre-election, determining who will become their front-runner. The primaries are already complete, with Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, and Trump as the Republican candidate.
Of course, there are always plenty of possible bets on primaries as well. These can be a huge chance for finding value. In , Trump won the popular vote in 30 states , as well as Maine's 2nd congressional district. This got him electoral votes, enough to win the presidency.
Clinton won the popular vote in 20 states , plus D. This granted her electoral votes. However, she did win the overall popular vote , since the states she won are more populous than the states where she lost. She won 65,, votes, or There are several key issues, which make the US election unique. With the coronavirus outbreak, protests and riots, and now statewide wildfires , the US is a very different place compared to the year before.
The coronavirus originated from China, and quickly took the world by storm. While the US in not uniquely affected, nowhere else has the epidemic been politicized to this level. In a country where you have both anti-mask zealots and pro-lockdown hardliners, the preferred way to deal with the virus seems divided between party lines. Since the death of George Floyd on May 25 in Minneapolis, there have been constant protest, riots and unrests.
These have already cost the lives of over 20 people at the time of writing including several police officers and cost billions in damages. The US would not be the US if this were not politicized as well. At the same time, it is completely unclear whether the protesters, rioters or their supporters are even voters at all.
While they are generally left leaning, a traditional candidate like Biden is not very appealing the people inspired by Marxism and anarchism. Mail-in voting is another major point of contention. Many states are choosing to allow mail-in voting as a precaution against the pandemic. How this will affect the US election is unclear. Of course, we will not now which side is right until the actual US election. Trump has always been a figure of controversy , in fact, that is how he built his personal brand before becoming president.
However, his war with the media has led to an unseen level of coverage and controversy. He seems to be at the top of each news page, on most sites, with stories that often lack context or nuance. Again, this is a bizarre strategy for the left-leaning media. While they portrayed Obama as a baby-faced angel a strategy that clearly worked , they are constantly portraying Trump as the ultimate incarnation of evil. Instead of a choice for a specific candidate, they are turning the election into a referendum on Trump.
One can only wonder what would happen if they spent all the energy attacking Trump on praising a Democratic candidate instead. In the UK and most countries, polls are generally a good way to predict the outcome of an election. However, polls can be skewed , especially in the US. Research has shown that most people vote for whom they believe will win the election. Because of this, politically inspired news outlets are doing everything they can to manipulate poll numbers to make it look as if their candidate has the best chance of winning.
Polls are often inaccurate because other factors as well. People with certain political views are often less likely to respond to poll requests. At the same time, people sometimes feel under pressure to answer that they will vote a certain way, even though they will vote differently when the election is finally at the door. In the lead-up to the election, all the polls had Hillary as a clear winner, while bookies also had her as a clear favourite to win.
We all know how that went! Joe Biden is getting very old! This is another unique factor in the election. He is already 77 years old and even his supporters are concerned with his possible mental decline. He rarely leaves his house to campaign, and seems to read most of his answers from a teleprompter.
His staff preapprove his questions and he rarely improvises. If elected, he would be the oldest US president in history. How he would fare in an actual debate against Trump is worrying to the Democrat establishment, which is why Democrat house speaker Nancy Pelosi is actually hoping he will not participate.
Of course, this has led to plenty of speculation what will happen if Biden cannot perform his duties. He could drop out of the race altogether, with the Democrats seeking an emergency replacement. Alternatively, if he wins, he could turn over the presidency to his running mate, Kamala Harris. As you can see in the odds above, bookies consider these realistic scenarios.
While you could use your gut feeling when analysing US election bets, there are plenty of polling bureaus dedicated to predicting who will win. Here are four of the best:. While the UK and the US are undoubtedly the most popular political markets, world politics often offer plenty of betting options and value. Australian politics are often interesting, even to POMs. Currently the Coalition is favoured to win the next parliamentary election. The general election will be held on Saturday 17 October and determine who will sit in parliament and elect the new prime minister.
In order to understand the different types of bets that exist in politics, we should first look at the different ways to place a bet: spread bets and online sportsbooks. Spread betting sites let you bet on what a result will be, the more correct you are, the more you will win. However, the more you are incorrect, the more money you can lose. A good example of this is Spreadex , where you can bet on points spreads on sporting events as well as election results.
Meanwhile, online sportsbooks provide the most convenient option for players. Through online bookmakers, players can wager on almost anything — the options found nowadays are practically unending. A lot of the bet categories available in sports are available in politics too. The most common bets include a straight up bet, handicap bet, and proposition bets. A straight up bet , is usually betting on one of two or more possible outcomes. These include outrights. For example: Trump or Biden to win the US election.
A handicap bet consists of wagering according to the margin you think a candidate will win by. My take on this is that you can rule out a December election since voters wouldn't take too kindly to an election campaign just before Christmas. DoorDash won't deliver for investors.
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